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Talking to Tim Hollo after the last election, it doesn’t look like he’s planning to run again in Canberra. I’m not sure that he’s not changed his mind, but it would have a big impact on the Green vote here, I would argue. There’s not really much of a path to anyone but Labor winning in Canberra, and even more so without a well-known local candidate like Hollo to drive the Green vote.
Hollo was a strong candidate that would be perfect if the Greens had safe sests. As it stands he isn’t exactly a household name, nor was he particularly well positioned to appeal outside the core Green demographics.
Canberra is tough for Greens compared to other heavily left leaning seats as shown by them not winning a single booth. But it’s winnable for Greens if a few things line up. A disappointing Labor government that pisses off the public servants is the right spark for it. David Pocock has shown the value of a local representative that isn’t aligned to a major party. The federal Green party room hasn’t shown much interest in Canberra issues (like the NCA) – that would need to change for a serious tilt.
If Shane Rattenbury leaves ACT politics and runs for Canberra he could win. His track record of working constructively with Labor would go down well here. Maybe Rebecca Vassarotti as well if she doesn’t survive the 2024 ACT election.
It will still be tough for Greens to come out on top in contests where Libs come 3rd. Hollo benefited from an open ticket in 2022 – even then Labor was too far ahead and gained votes after the Liberal exclusion.
But if Greens can start winning seats like Cooper and Wills then Canberra makes sense as a target.
Canberra is way tougher for the Greens to win than Cooper and Wills. The Liberals still come second on primaries in most of South Canberra and this holds up the Labor vote in an ALP vs GRN contest. Yarralumla, Deakin and Red Hill are old-money Liberal. The outskirts of Belconnen are more suburban and would also have a slightly lower Greens vote.
There’s a possibility of the Liberals taking a risk and preferencing the Greens ahead of Labor. Although this is unlikely, it’s more likely to happen in the ACT than outside the ACT as the Liberals have nothing to lose here. Outside the ACT, a Greens-Liberals deal would cause a lot of uproar within the Coalition, especially a Dutton-led one.
@ Votante
Further to your point. The Greens only made the 2CP last election because the Libs primary vote collapsed in the Old-money areas you mentioned as they are include a lot of small L liberals. The other thing is that Canberra is not really seeing gentrification like Cooper or Wills never had working class voters to begin with. Rather there is some densification along the Tram corridor which is increasing the number of young renters. I dont think Labor can get knocked out of the 2CP in Canberra so it relies on Libs preferencing the Greens.
The Greens have preselected Isabel Mudford, a Sociology PhD student at the Australian National University, as their candidate for Canberra next election.
Labor hold, small swing to the Greens (2-4%).
Labor has re-preselected sitting MP Alicia Payne for this seat.
Greens have already preselected, but Rebecca Vassarotti is now available if the Greens want to really target this seat. Even better, if Rattenbury quits ACT politics, letting Vassarotti fill the count back, he could run.
Emma Davidson could run in Bean, though she wouldn’t move the needle much there.
Labor won’t be losing any of their act seats to the greens anytime soon. Not unless the libs preference them.
No reason to think the Liberal vote will increase much – the ACT election showed that the electorate does not yet believe the local Liberal Party has definitively moved on from its perviously conservative leadership
i really dont think Libs will preference Greens in this seat. I also doubt it will become a GRN V LIB seat so Labor retain.